应用层次分析法的航天器健康评估方法  

Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Spacecraft Health Evaluation

作　　者：冯文婧[1] 潘宇倩[1] 白东炜[1] 郭嘉[1] 张弓[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京100094

出　　处：《航天器工程》2014年第2期12-18,共7页Spacecraft Engineering

摘　　要：采用层次分析法,实现各故障模式对航天器系统、分系统、单机设备影响权重的量化和分析,并提出航天器健康评估体系分级构建思想;结合航天器遥测数据特性对故障预测技术和健康评估方法进行了研究,设计了新陈代谢GM(1,1)等动态预测模型,给出了故障模式预测仿真结果。研究结果可为航天器在轨任务规划、故障处理维护等提供借鉴。The main factors affecting spacecraft health status of system, sub-system and equip- ment are analyzed by using AHP（analytical hierarchy process） in this paper. Thus, a thought of constructing health evaluation system is proposed. Prediction algorithm and health evaluation methods are also studied based on the characteristics of telemetry parameters. An improved C-M （1,1） model is built and the dynamic prognostic simulation results are given. The research could support spacecraft on-orbit assignment and failure processing.

关 键 词：航天器 健康评估 层次分析法 GM(1 1)预测模型 故障模式 

分 类 号：V467[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]