基于GIS和Logistic模型的白龙江流域泥石流危险性分析  

Analysis of Debris Flow Hazard Risk with GIS and Logistic Model in Bailong River Basin

作　　者：田菲[1] 马金辉[1] 弥沛峰 屈创[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第15期4725-4727,4735,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：科技部支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B00)

摘　　要：对白龙江流域武都段的泥石流灾害风险性进行了分析。结合历史灾害数据和专家意见选取了高程、坡度、岩性、滑坡点密度、距断层距离、土地利用和NDVI作为主要影响因子,运用GIS的空间分析功能对所选因子进行分组,采用统计软件分析功能建立Logistic回归模型。并通过受试者工作特征曲线评价Logistic回归模型的性能。最终制作成泥石流灾害危险性区划图,对当地防灾减灾工作具有重要参考作用。The risk of debris flow in Wudu segment of Bailong River Basin was analyzed. By the analysis of the history hazard data and the local professor＇s proposal,selecting elevation,slope,lithology,land use,landslides density,cumulative distance from fault interface and normalized NDVI（ normalized difference vegetation index） for debris flow hazards assessment,the factors were classified with GIS spatial analysis function,the effective of this model was estimated by the receiver operating characteristic curve（ ROC）. Finally,mapping the debris flow hazard zonation map with the result of the Logistic model and it can be a reference to the practical application in the future.

关 键 词：白龙江流域 GIS 泥石流 LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：S127[农业科学—农业基础科学]