河北省城镇职工养老保险基金缺口现状与趋势分析  

The Analysis on Present Situation and Trend of Town Workers' Pension Insurance Fund Gap in Hebei

作　　者：赵艳[1] 张鑫武[1] 马妮娜[1] 周明[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《未来与发展》2014年第5期107-113,共7页Future and Development

基　　金：国家教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地(西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心)重大项目(13JJD630011);西北大学研究生自主创新项目(YZZ12025);国家社会科学基金一般项目"社会保险统一经办模式及实现路径研究(13BGL117)

摘　　要：采用队列要素法并根据第六次人口普查数据,通过年龄变动情况,预测了2011-2030年河北省人口规模及结构,然后采用总体法精算模型,根据河北省城镇职工基本养老保险相关数据,测算出2011-2030年河北省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支规模。发现在剔除政府财政补贴后,河北省城镇职工养老保险基金缺口开始逐渐出现,并且越来越大。下一阶段,河北省政府需从财政、收入、个人账户、投资渠道四个方面加强对城镇职工养老保险基金的管理。According to the sixth census data ,and using the method of queue elements, through the age changes, forecasting the population size and structure of Hebei Province in 2011-2030.Then using the actuarial model of general method, according to the related data, figuring out fund income and expenditure scale of Hebei Province in 2011-2030. Excluding government financial subsidies, founding that pension insurance fund gap of Hebei Province begin to appear, and become more and more big. The next stage, the government in Hebei shall strengthen the management of town worker pension insurance fund from aspects of finance, income, personal accounts, and investment channel.

关 键 词：基本养老保险收支 基金养老保险基金缺口 队列要素法 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]