巢湖流域极端降水事件的时空变化趋势分析  

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Change Trend of Extreme Precipitation Events in Chaohu Basin

作　　者：陈实[1] 高超[1,2] 黄银兰[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [3]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华321000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2014年第5期27-30,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101035);教育部高校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20113424120002);湖泊与环境国家重点实验室开放课题(2010SKL015);安徽省教育厅自然科学重点项目(KJ2010A154)

摘　　要：采用国家气候中心发布的1961—2010年气象台站观测资料插值格点化数据集(CN05.1),选取巢湖流域及其周边的29个格点站降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall以及反距离加权插值法,分析研究巢湖流域极端降水事件的频率、降水量、强度、年最大日降水量和严重干旱事件的频率等多个指标的时间变化和空间分布特征。结果表明:①巢湖流域极端降水频率与极端降水量的变化趋势一致,变化幅度相当,在空间分布上两者呈现出由西南向东北方向的增加趋势;②极端降水事件的频率、降水量、强度、年最大日降水量都趋于波动性升高,唯独严重干旱事件的次数明显减少;③极端降水强度和严重干旱事件的空间分布变化相当明显,很有可能与所处的特殊地形、地貌、气象条件、土地利用方式和全球变暖等有关;④近50 a巢湖流域极端降水事件的增加、严重干旱事件的显著减少以及空间分布差异性和巢湖流域本身易受侵蚀的地质构造条件,导致巢湖流域洪涝灾害事件发生的可能性非常大。This paper made use of the observational data based on more than 2400 ground meteorological offices and stations issued by the National Climate Center,and established a set of data set （CN05. 1）in grids of 0. 25 ＆#215; 0. 25 longitude resolution,then selected 29 lattice point temperature precipitation data in Chaohu basin and its surrounding between 1961 and 2010. Using the Mann-Kendall and the method of inverse distance weigh-ted interpolation,the author analyzed and researched the time changes and spatial distribution characteristics of multiple index of extreme precipitati-on in Chaohu basin ,such as frequency,precipitation,intensity,annual maximum daily precipitation,frequency of severe drought event and so on. The results show that：firstly,the variation trend of the frequency and the amount of extreme precipitation of Chaohu basin is consistent;the ampli-tude of variation of them is correspond;both of them turn on increase trend from southwest to northeast in the spatial distribution. Secondly,the fre-quency,precipitation,intensity,the maximum daily precipitation of year of extreme precipitation all tend to rise wavily,and only the numbers of severe drought event decrease obviously. Thirdly,the change of spatial distribution of intensity of extreme precipitation and severe drought event is quite obvious,which is likely relevant to special terrain,landform,meteorological condition,land-use type,global warming,and so on. Fourthly, the increase of precipitation event and the obvious decrease of severe drought event of Chaohu basin in recent 50 years,the heterogeneity of spatial distribution and the erodible geological tectonic conditions of Chaohu basin probably lead to flood disaster event in Chaohu basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 时空特征 趋势分析 巢湖流域 

分 类 号：S161.22[农业科学—农业气象学] S161.6[农业科学—农业基础科学]