试析墨菲法则——基于概率和认知的视角  

Murphy's Law: from the Perspective of Probability and Cognition

作　　者：张若思[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学马克思主义学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2014年第5期19-23,共5页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"当代西方心灵哲学中的心理内容研究"(11CZX051)阶段性成果

摘　　要：现实生活中墨菲法则的频繁应验给人们带来困惑,墨菲悖论是其困惑的来源。本文从概率论和认知心理学的角度对墨菲法则进行讨论,运用贝叶斯定理和多锚反锚法来消除墨菲法则中的困惑。The frequent fulfillment of Murphy's law brings confusion to people. Murphy's paradox is the source of such confusion. The article tries to analyze Murphy's law based on the probability theory and cognitive psychology,and then dissolves the confusion of Murphy's law by using Bayes' theorem as well as the multiple-anchor and counter-anchor methods.

关 键 词：墨菲法则 墨菲悖论 贝叶斯定理 多锚反锚法 

分 类 号：B81[哲学宗教—逻辑学]