基于MCMC的桥式起重机疲劳寿命可靠性灵敏度分析  

Bridge crane fatigue life reliability sensitivity analysis based on MCMC method

作　　者：史朝阳[1] 王爱红[1] 高有山[1] 吕少华[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学机械工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第3期47-52,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：山西省自然科学基金资助(2012011025-5);十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2011BAK06B05-05);山西省高等学校科技项目(20120023);博士启动基金资助(20132006)

摘　　要：为确定影响桥式起重机疲劳寿命可靠性的关键因素,考虑初始裂纹、临界裂纹、应力比等参数具有不确定性的特点,应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)法分析疲劳剩余寿命可靠性灵敏度,得到对可靠性有影响的参数的排序结果。结果表明:影响桥式起重机疲劳寿命可靠性的参数排序,按照从大到小依次是初始裂纹尺寸、应力变程、应力比、试验常数和临界裂纹尺寸;临界裂纹的均值灵敏度为负值,表明临界裂纹均值增加引起失效概率减小,其余变量的均值灵敏度以及所有变量的方差灵敏度为正值,表明这些分布参数增加将引起失效概率增大。In order to determine the key factors influencing bridge crane fatigue life reliability,a fatigue residual life reliability sensitivity analysis was carried out by applying MCMC method taking into account uncertainties of parameters involved,such as the initial crack,the critical crack,stress ratio and other parameters. The parameters were sequenced according to their influence on reliability. The results show that parameter sequence is the initial crack size,stress variable range,stress ratio,material constant and the critical crack size,that mean sensitivity of critical crack is negative,it indicates that failure probability reduces when critical crack mean increases,and that mean sensitivity of remaining variables and variance sensitivity of all variables are positive,it indicates that failure probability increases when these distribution parameters increase.

关 键 词：桥式起重机 疲劳剩余寿命 可靠性 灵敏度分析 马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC) 

分 类 号：X924.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]