大型活动事故风险评价模型与方法研究  

Research on model and method of accident risk assessment in large-scale activities

作　　者：佟瑞鹏[1] 高平[1] 刘欣[1] 李春旭[1] 万海燕[1] 邓凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,副教授北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第3期150-155,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51204188)

摘　　要：为研究大型活动事故风险评价通用方法,综合考虑活动特性、固有事故风险和风险抵消因素,构建大型活动事故风险评价模型。基于风险指数方法来阐明大型活动事故风险水平与大型活动类别、活动场所、火灾风险、人群聚集、场所管理、人员疏散、应急系统相关联的通用计算方法,以此对大型活动事故风险进行分级。并应用该模型评价中国好声音总决赛活动事故风险状况。结果表明:大型活动事故风险可分为6级,举办方可根据活动的风险等级采取对应的事故预防和风险控制对策。In order to get a common method to analyze and evaluate large-scale activities＇ own accident risk,this paper makes an overall consideration of features,inherent accident risks and risk counteraction factors in relation to large-scale activities,and builds an assessment model of accident risk in large-scale activities. Based on risk index a common calculation method which associated with categories,place,fire risk,crowd,site management,evacuation and emergency system was clarified to evaluate the risk level of large-scale activities and accident risk were graded. At last the model was used to evaluate the accident risk level of Voice of China Finals. The results show that accident risk in large-scale activities can be divided into 6 levels and host could take corresponding preventive measures based on risk level.

关 键 词：大型活动 事故风险 评价模型 风险指数 风险等级 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]