当前我国城乡居民的生育意愿——基于2013年全国生育意愿调查  

Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban Residents in China:Results from the 2013 National Fertility Intention Survey

作　　者：庄亚儿[1] 姜玉[1] 王志理[1] 李成福[1] 齐嘉楠[1] 王晖[1] 刘鸿雁[1] 李伯华[1] 覃民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2014年第3期3-13,共11页Population Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统"(编号:2012BAI40B01)阶段性成果

摘　　要：2013年全国开展的生育意愿调查表明,当前城乡居民的理想子女数为1.93;实行一孩、一孩半、二孩政策地区分别为1.84、1.98、2.01;双独、单独、普通家庭分别为1.79、1.83、1.95;现有一孩单独家庭的理想子女数为1.81。全国城乡居民理想子女的性别比为104;理想子女数为1个、2个孩子的性别比分别为128、102。单独一孩家庭对生育下一个孩子时间安排,"未确定"的比例达59.0%,明年、后年、大后年的比例分别为20.5%、12.1%、8.4%。完善生育政策有助于缩小居民生育意愿与生育行为之间的差距,全面实施"单独二孩"政策,全国范围内不太可能出现出生堆积现象。In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the ＂Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings＂, a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 prov- inces in China in August 2013. Survey results indicate that, currently, the ideal number of children is 1.93 in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with ] child, 1.5 and 2 children policies are 1.84, 1.98 and 2.01 respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings, one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings, the reported ideal numbers of children are 1.79, 1.83 and 1.95 respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child, the reported ideal number of children is 1.81. The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child, .59% are ＂uncertain＂ about the birth timing of next child, 20..5% plan to give a birth in one year, 12. 1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8.4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of fami- ly planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior, and it is high- ly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the ＂Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings＂ is well implemented.

关 键 词：生育意愿 理想子女数 生育意愿调查 生育政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]