失独群体的人口结构、城乡分布及需求差异——基于10个省的数据分析  

The Demography of Families Having Lost Their Only Child： An Analysis of Data from 10 Provinces in China

作　　者：陈恩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人口研究》2014年第3期81-88,共8页Population Research

基　　金：本文为“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目“人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统”课题阶段性成果（课题号：2012BA140B01）.

摘　　要：文章利用10个省份女方为49周岁以上的失独家庭统计数据分析失独群体的人口结构和城乡分布，首次揭示了失独群体的内部构成。研究发现：男性失独者比例高于女性；整体上失独群体是一个高度老龄化的特殊群体，但一半以上的失独事件发生在女性理论生育年龄上限（即49周岁）之前；近30％的失独者处于不在婚、无配偶状态；一半以上失独者零散分布在广大农村，但是城市失独者所占比重在逐年平缓地上升。此外，本研究还发现：失独群体是一个异质性群体，其性别、年龄、婚姻状况、有无第三代、失独原因、城乡分布等对失独者的公共服务需求均有较为明显的影响。研究认为，在解决失独群体共同的精神慰藉问题同时，政府应根据失独群体的结构分布和需求差异制定相关政策。This paper examines the demographic structure and urban-rural distribution of the fami- lies having lost their only child （ Shidu ）, using data from 10 provinces in China of the Shidu families in which wives are at or more than 49 years of age. Results show that the proportion of Shidu husbands is higher than that of Shidu wives; the Shidu population is a special group which is highly aging, but more than half of the Shidu parents lost their only child before the age of 49 of wives; nearly 30% of the Shidu population are currently unmarried, more than half living in rural areas, but the proportion in the city is rising. Howerver, the Shidu population is highly heterogeneous, and their demands for public services differ with gender, age, marital status, availabilily of third generation, reasons why lost the only child, and urban and rural residence. Policies addressing this issue need to be formulated according to the structure and demand differences of the Shidu population.

关 键 词：独生子女 失独群体 PADIS系统 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]