中国经常项目顺差的影响因素研究——基于双缺口模型的实证分析  

A Research on the Factors Causing the Surplus of China's Current Account Balance——An Empirical Analysis Based on Two-Gap Model

作　　者：李新[1] 邹宏元[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院,四川成都610074

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2014年第6期53-58,69,共7页East China Economic Management

摘　　要：文章在双缺口模型的基础上,进一步分拆模型去寻找影响私人部门储蓄-投资缺口进而影响我国经常账户余额的因素。并且对人均GDP、政府部门的财政余额、对私人部门投放的信贷余额、一国的实际利率以及抚养比率这五项指标进行协整检验和格兰杰因果检验;并建立VAR模型,分析其脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果。实证结果揭示了以上因素对我国经常项目余额的长期影响方向和短期变动的特点。Based on Two-Gap model, the paper aims to investigate the factors which influence China＇ s current account balance through finding the gap between private savings and private investment by further dividing the model into several parts. It also makes the cointegration test and Granger causality test on 5 factors, namely the GDP per capita, government fiscal balance, credit to private sectors per GDP, real interest rate and total dependency ratio. Then it builds VAR model to analyze their impulse response functions and variance decomposition results. The empirical results reveal the impacts of these factors on long-term direction and characteristics of short-term movements of China＇ s current account balance.

关 键 词：经常账户余额 双缺口模型 国民收入恒等式 协整检验 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]