中国—俄罗斯FTA的贸易、关税及福利效应——基于WITS-SMART的模拟分析  

Trade,Tariffs and Welfare Effects of China-Russia FTA——A Simulation Analysis Based on WITS-SMART Model

作　　者：余振[1] 陈继勇[1] 邱珊[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2014年第6期63-69,共7页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目(11&ZD008);国家社会科学基金责年项目(10CGJ017);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地武汉大学经济发展研究中心研究项目(13CEDR0002)

摘　　要：当前,中国与俄罗斯亟需通过FTA夯实双方战略伙伴关系的经贸基础。文章利用WITS-SMART模型估算了中俄FTA的贸易、关税以及福利效应,结果显示:随着FTA框架下关税不断削减,中俄两国大多数产品部门都将从贸易规模扩张中受益,尽管两国的关税收入会出现下降,但是整体的经济福利都将获得提升。如果两国能够尽快实现零关税,那么两国之间的贸易往来会获得快速增长。因此,中俄两国需要从战略层面把握中俄FTA建设的重要意义,尽快推动中俄FTA谈判与建设。Currently, it is urgent for both China and Russia to consolidate the economic foundation of bilateral strategic partnership through the FTA. Using the WITS-SMART model, the paper provides insights on trade, tariffs and welfare effects of China-Russia FTA. The results show that the majority of production sectors will benefit from the expansion of trade along with the continuous reduction of tariffs under the FTA framework. The overall econonfic welfare of China and Russia will increase regardless of the decline of two country＇ s tariff revenues. If China and Russia can achieve zero tariff as soon as possible, the trade between the two countries will grow rapidly. Therefore, both China and Russia should realize the significances of China-Russian FTA and promote FTA negotiations at the strategic level, and ultimately reach and sign the FTA.

关 键 词：中国 俄罗斯 FTA 经济效应 SMART模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]