基于多项Logistic回归的地铁应急疏散行为影响因素分析  

Influential Factors of Passenger Behavior in Subway Emergency Evacuation Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression

作　　者：王世通[1] 杨艳红[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津∥讲师300384 [2]天津城建大学建筑学院,天津300384

出　　处：《城市轨道交通研究》2014年第5期73-76,80,共5页Urban Mass Transit

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目资助(项目号12YJCZH249);天津市自然科学基金一般项目(项目号12JCYBJC14400)

摘　　要：地铁中突发事件下乘客的行为对安全疏散具有重要影响。从个体角度对影响人群应急疏散的因素总结为性别、年龄、教育程度、性格类型、环境熟悉程度、乘车频率、是否经历过地铁紧急疏散训练、获得过地铁安全方面知识的程度8个方面,构建了多项Logistic回归模型,并进行检验和预测。结果显示,教育程度和性格对应急疏散行为影响显著。同时分析了不同性格、教育程度的人群在应急疏散行为方面的差异。最后根据研究结果提出了应急疏散的建议。In subway emergencies, passengers＇ behavior has big impact on the safe evacuation. From the perspective of individuals,8 factors from the aspectsof sex, age, education background, personal character, environment identifica- tion, frequency boading on subway, experience of emergen- cy evacuation, the degree of safety knowledge are summa- rized, a multinomial Logistic regression model is built, tested and predicted. The results show that the education back- ground and personal character have a significant effect on the emergency evacuation behavior. At the same time, the diviation of different character types and education levels of crowds are analyzed,which provides some suggestion for metro emergency evacuation.

关 键 词：应急疏散行为 多项Logisitic回归 影响因素 

分 类 号：U231.92[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]