近51a伊犁河谷热量资源时空变化  

Spatiotemporal Variation of Heat Resources in the Ili River Basin in Recent 51 Years

作　　者：徐娇媚[1] 徐文修[2] 李大平[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学农学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2014年第3期472-480,共9页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然基金(31260312)

摘　　要：基于伊犁河谷10个气象站1960—2010年年平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃积温及无霜冻期气象资料,采用线性趋势分析、t-检验、Kriging空间插值等方法,对伊犁河谷近51 a的热量资源时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:①热量资源的空间分布总体呈现平原地区多山区少的特点;②近51 a伊犁河谷的热量资源呈增加趋势,年平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续日数、无霜冻期分别以0.43℃·(10a)-1、89.9℃·d·(10a)-1、88.0℃·d·(10a)-1、4.0 d·(10a)-1、3.2 d·(10a)-1和5.4 d·(10a)-1的倾向率上升,51 a来分别增加了2.2℃、458.5℃·d、448.8℃·d、20.4 d、16.3 d和27.5 d。并且各热量资源要素在20世纪90年代中后期发生突变,突变后年平均气温、≥0℃持续日数和无霜冻期在平原地区增幅最大,在山间盆地增幅较小。≥0℃与≥10℃积温在丘陵地区增加最明显,在山间盆地增加最少。而≥10℃持续日数在山间盆地增加最多,在平原地区增加最少。Based on the data from 10 meteorological stations in the Ili River Basin during the period from 1960 to 2010, the spatiotemporal change of heat resources in this area in recent 51 years were analyzed using the methods of linear regression, T-test and spatial interpolation. The results showed that, spatially, it was richer in heat resources in plain than in the mountainous regions. The mean annual temperature, accumulated temperatures ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ and their durations as well as the frost free period were increased by 0.43℃·（10a）-1、89.9℃·d·（10a）-1、88.0℃·d·（10a）-1、4.0 d·（10a）-1、3.2 d·（10a）-1 and 5.4 d·（10a）-1, equally2.2℃、458.5℃·d、448.8℃·d、20.4 d、16.3 d and 27.5 d., respectively. The variations occurred mostly from the late 1990s. After mutation, the change ranges of the mean annual temperature, duration of temperature ≥0 ℃ and frost free period were the highest in plain but the lowest in the mountainous regions. The change ranges of the accu- mulated temperature ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ were the most significant in the hilly area but the least in the mountainous regions. The change range of the duration of temperature ≥10 ℃ was the highest in the mountainous regions but the least in plain.

关 键 词：热量资源 时空变化 年平均气温 积温 无霜冻期 伊犁河谷 

分 类 号：P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]