新兴经济体增长趋缓中的周期性和结构性问题及启示  

Cyclical and Structural Factors in the Slowdown of Emerging Economies' Growth and Enlightenment

作　　者：李计广[1] 黄宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京100029 [2]对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2014年第3期44-50,共7页Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"我国与新兴市场国家共赢性发展路径研究"(13BJY133);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金项目"中国与金砖国家经贸关系的不平衡性问题研究"(2013001)

摘　　要：本轮新兴经济体增长趋缓并非短期性现象,在未来较长一段时期都将趋于温和增长,这是由周期性和结构性因素决定的。一方面,新兴经济体面临的资本流入周期、出口增长周期和大宗商品价格上涨周期逐渐终结,发达经济体力推的区域性高标准贸易安排将主要的新兴经济体排除在外;另一方面,新兴经济体在高速增长的环境下错失了结构性改革的最佳时机,不仅在需求层面过度对外依赖,而且面临愈发凸显的供给层面约束。在此背景下,全球宏观经济政策开始进入调整期,中国的政策侧重点应从总需求管理转向总供给管理,并注意宏观经济金融指标对于结构调整的重要性。The slowdown of emerging economies＇ growth is not a short-term phenomenon, as it has been determined by cyclical and structural factors, which means those economies will go through a period of moderate growth in the near future. On one hand, the cycles of capital inflowing, export growing and commodity prices rising which benefited emerging economies a lot are gradually coming to an end. Advanced economies are now focusing on carefully selected regional trade arrangements with high standards, which exclude most emerging economies. On the other hand, indulged in the prosperity of rapid growth, emerging economies missed the best opportunity of implementing necessary structural reforms. Now they not only excessively rely on external demand, but also face increasingly prominent supply constraints. In this context, global macroeconomic policy has entered a period of adjustment. And China＇ s macroeconomic policy focus should shift from demand management to supply management, while avoiding ignoring the importance of financial indicators at the same time.

关 键 词：新兴经济体 增长趋缓 周期性因素 结构性因素 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]