保险业增长与盈利之间存在动态关系吗  

Is There a Dynamic Interaction between Growth and Profitability of Insurer?

作　　者：吴洪[1] 赵桂芹[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳518060 [2]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2014年第5期178-192,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"保险体系的脆弱性评估及其宏观审慎监管研究(12CJY118)";国家自科基金项目"财产险公司保费增长与承保风险关系研究(71103117)";教育部人文社科青年基金项目"资本监管与市场竞争联合作用对产险公司风险承担行为的影响"(10YJC790391)的资助

摘　　要：保险业的增长和盈利是保险产业"做大""做强"的重要基础。但是,在保险业三十多年发展历程中,很少有公司能同时满足增长和盈利的双重目标。过去的研究曾分别关注过保险公司的增长和盈利主题,但极少有研究同时把两者放在一个框架下考虑。本文采用动态面板分析的方法,在Goddard et al.(2004.)的基础上构建了一个统一的模型,研究我国保险业的成长性和盈利性以及二者的相互关系。研究发现,无论寿险业还是产险业均不符合Gibrat法则,小公司成长速度更快;保险公司具有盈利持续性;盈利性越差的公司,增长速度越快。这一研究结果有力支持了保险业仍处于偏重规模增长的初级阶段的判断,全行业有待从规模增长导向转型到盈利性增长的战略路径上来。Growth and profit are the basis of ＂bigger and stronger＂ strategy of insurance industry. However, few insurers can gain both the goal of growing and making profit during thirty yeats of development. The previous studies have focused on the growth and profitability separately, but seldom considered them jointly under an uni- fied framework. We construct a unified model based on Goddard et al. （2004） to study insurance growth and profitability as well as the interaction between the two subjects using GMM method. The study declines the hy- pothesis of LPE with small insurers growing faster but supports the hypothesis of POP （ Persistency of Profit）. We also find that insurers with lower profitability tend to grow faster. The study gives strong evidence that Chi- nese insurance industry belongs to the primary stage of development with too much emphasis on scale growth. It should make a change from extensive growth to the profitability - focused path.

关 键 词：成长性 盈利性 动态关系 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险] F840.4