2012年中国南海台风模式预报情况  

THE FORECAST OF SOUTH CHINA SEA TC MODEL IN 2012

作　　者：杨兆礼[1] 陈子通[1] 张诚忠[1] 戴光丰[1] 黄燕燕[1] 钟水新[1] 徐道生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第2期392-400,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206010);广东省科技计划项目(2011A032100006);广东省科技计划项目2012A061400012;国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2011CB403403)共同资助

摘　　要：通过统计和评估中国南海台风模式2012年的预报结果,得出了2012年各种类型热带气旋的预报质量情况。由于在动力过程优化及水物质和边界层的改进方面做了不少工作,使得中国南海台风模式的全年平均距离误差第一次在历史上突破了100 km以下,且无论是24 h、48 h及72 h的路径还是强度预报都比历年要好很多,从2012年全年的台风路径预报效果来看,有一半的台风24 h路径预报误差在100 km以下大部分台风48 h路径预报误差在200 km以下。另外,2012年中国南海台风模式对强TC的路径预报仍然象往年一样要优于弱TC;而强度预报则相反,对于较弱的强热带风暴预报其效果反而最好。个例分析发现副高强度位置及相关的西伸活动对台风路径预报有较大影响;同时,减少模式位势高度的总体平均RMSE误差对台风路径预报准确率的提高有相当重要的作用。By statistic methods and estimating the 2012 forecasts from a South China Sea tropical cyclones （TCs） model from the Guangzhou Institute, we determined the quality of model forecast for different kind of TCs. As much work has been done on optimizing the dynamic procedure and improving the hydrometeors and boundary layer, the South China Sea TC model reduces, for the first time in history, its 24 hour mean distance error of path forecast to within 100 km. Moreover, for all of the intervals of 24, 48, and 72 hours, both the path and intensity are much better forecast than over the years. From the path forecast throughout 2012, there are about half of the TCs with the 24 hour path forecast error smaller than 100km.For most TCs, their 48 hour path forecast error is smaller than 200 km. In addition, the path forecast for strong TCs is better than that of weak TCs in 2012. The intensity forecast has exactly the reversed effects： the forecast of weak TCs is better than that of strong TCs. Finally, the intensity and location of the subtropical high and its westward extension have great influence on TC path forecast. The reduction of mean RMSE of model-forecast geopotential height is important for improving the accuracy of TC path forecast.

关 键 词：动力气象学 路径预报质量 统计评估 南海台风 预报准确率 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]