基于多智能体的居民新能源选择情景模拟  

Scenario analysis of households' adoption behavior for renewable energy based on agent-based modeling

作　　者：郭源远[1,2] 董江山[1] 尹京苑[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学计算机工程与科学学院,上海200444 [2]上海大学通信与信息工程学院,上海200444

出　　处：《电子测量技术》2014年第5期69-73,84,共6页Electronic Measurement Technology

摘　　要：居民对新能源的接受可以有效缓解常规能源紧缺的局面.居民对不同种能源的选择行为是决定是否接受新能源的关键。在NETLOGO平台下建立了以居民用户为主体的多智能体仿真模型,重点研究了不同性质的影响因素如何制约居民用户的能源选择行为进而引起使用新能源的居民用户数量发生变化。以太阳能热水器为研究对象,分析了影响居民用户接受太阳能的四类因素,在影响因素中选取大众传媒与政府决策因素进行情景模拟,结果表明,在天然气相对太阳能在地域及政府决策因素有优势的情景下,政府决策因素比大众传媒更能影响居民用户对太阳能的选择行为.能源补贴的发放可明显缩短居民用户接受太阳能的时间并提高使用用户数量,在这种情景下大多数接受太阳能的用户依然保持使用天然气。Conventional energies are the mainly energy resources for households＇ daily use.Adoption of renewable energies can save the overuse of conventional energies.With the consideration of households＇ psychological choice,the energies adoption behavior of households plays a key role in whether renewable energy will be chose or not.In this study,an agent based model for households＇ energies adoption behavior is developed via NETLOGO.The model mainly studies the effect of influencing factors on the dynamic households＇ energies choosing process.Using solar energy as an illustration of renewable energy,four attributes of influencing factors for promotion of solar water heaters are analyzed.Government policy and mass media factors are chosen from the influencing factors.Scenario analysis is taken to study their effect on the numbers of households＇ change.Results show that government policy is more effective than mass media factor when the environment and government policy don＇t facilitate solar energy.Energy subsidy is an effective way to reduce the solar energy adoption time interval and increase the number of households that adopt the renewable energy.In this case,most households who adopt solar energy will still chose nature gas for daily use.

关 键 词：新能源 多智能体仿真模拟 居民用户选择行为 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]