中国三种濒危葡萄属(Vitis L.)植物的地理分布模拟  

Modeling the geographic distribution of three endangered Vitis species in China

作　　者：姜建福[1] 樊秀彩[1] 张颖[1] 魏伟[2] 康定明[3] 刘崇怀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院郑州果树研究所,郑州450009 [2]中国科学院植物研究所,北京100093 [3]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2014年第6期1615-1622,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-30-yz-1);农业部作物种质资源保护项目(NB2012-2130135-34);国家科技基础性工作专项(2012FY110100-1-5);中英可持续农业创新网络(SAIN)项目"通过增强保护和利用作物野生近缘种的多样性以支持可持续发展和减缓气候变化(CWR China)"资助

摘　　要：收集云南葡萄、庐山葡萄和温州葡萄3个濒危种的地理分布资料,利用地理信息系统软件ArcGIS绘制其现状分布图,在分布信息数据矢量化的基础上研究了影响其分布的主要环境因子,同时采用BIOCLIM模型对3种野葡萄的生态位进行了模拟,预测了其在当前和未来的可能潜在分布区。结果表明:3种野葡萄主要集中分布于我国的长江以南地区,江西北部和浙江东南部分别是庐山葡萄和温州葡萄最为集中的地区,云南葡萄分布比较分散;最干季的均温、年均温差和年降雨量是影响云南葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;年均温、降雨量的季节性变化、最湿季均温和平均月温差是影响庐山葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;极端最低温、年降雨量、最干月降雨量是影响温州葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;3种野葡萄当前的潜在分布区与实际分布区有很好的一致性,说明BIOCLIM模型模拟的精确度较高,3种野葡萄当前和未来可能潜在分布中心依然位于我国的南部地区,在未来气候变化情景下,3种野葡萄适宜区面积变化范围不明显,但适宜区向北部移动。The geographic distribution patterns of three endangered Vitis species（ V. yunnanensis C. L. Li,V. hui Cheng and V. wenchouensis C. Ling ex W. T. Wang） in China were investigated through analyses of their comprehensive geographic distribution information. The current distribution patterns of the three Vitis species were mapped by ArcGIS software. Their potential future distribution patterns under the impacts of present climate and potential future climate change were simulated and predicted using BIOCLIM model. The results showed that the three wild Vitis species are distributed mainly in south of the Yangtze River. V. hui is mainly distributed in northern Jiangxi Province,and V. wenchouensis in southeastern Zhejiang Province,while V. yunnanensis is distributed in a scattered pattern. The dominant factors affecting the geographic distribution of V. yunnanensis are mean temperature of the driest quarter,mean annual temperature range,and annual precipitation. Annual mean temperature,precipitation seasonality,mean temperature of the wettest quarter and mean monthly temperature range are that for V. hui; and minimum temperature of the coldest month,annual precipitation,and precipitation of the driest month are that for V. wenchouensis. Simulated present distributions of these three Vitis species by BIOCLIM model match very well their actual distribution ranges,indicating that the simulation by BIOCLIM model is accurate. The current and potential future distributions of these species are and will still remain in south China. Under the future climate scenario with a doubled CO2concentration,these three Vitis species may all shift northward; but the ranges of the suitable zone change are not obvious.

关 键 词：葡萄属 地理分布格局 气候变化 模拟预测 

分 类 号：S663.1[农业科学—果树学]