中国旅游业股票的“节日效应”研究  

The Effect of "Holiday" on China's Tourism Stocks

作　　者：牛翠珍 寇明婷[2] 卢新生[3] 

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学历史与旅游文化学院,山西大同037009 [2]山西大同大学商学院,山西大同037009 [3]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《经济管理》2014年第6期127-135,共9页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"货币政策调整与国内资产价格波动:基于多维GARCH方法的实证检验"(71173088);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"宏观审慎视角下资产价格波动与宏观经济波动关联研究"(13YJC790062)

摘　　要："节日效应"是旅游业研究的重点。已有研究不仅肯定了"节日效应"对我国旅游经济发展的积极作用,也从不同角度对其负面影响进行了剖析。本文以证券交易市场中的旅游业上市公司作为研究对象,运用事件研究方法,对春节期间旅游业上市公司股票收益率的变化进行了细致分析。实证结果表明,春节对旅游业上市公司价值增长具有的正面效应大于负面效应,可以促进旅游经济的发展。同时,针对负面效应,提出了科学可行的对策建议。As of early 2013, the tourism-elated listed companies has grown to 39, covering several major tourism industries, such as hotels, tourist attractions industry ,travel agencies and tourism transportation, etc. Thosetourism industries had formed a more complete tourism sector in the stock market and also reflected the direction of development of tourism economy to some extent. On the stock market, the state of the listed companies of tourismindustries in the past.its present condition and future prospects all reflect the stock price;On the one hand, it reflects the related information of the corporate development, on the other hand, it implies the market＇s expectationsto the company＇s vision. Of course, it also becomes a barometer of the economic value of the company, which chan- ges with the varying economy. Various types of tourism investments, the configuration and flow of resources, thesurvival of the fittest between tourism enterprises as well as people＇s considerations to the optimizations of the best travel products before they make decisions to travel-all of those can get a meaningful reference largely through thetourism- market-performance analysis about the current 39 listed tourism industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Therefore, the studying of the variations of stock return of the listed companies of tourism industry canhelp to evaluate changes in the situation of tourism economy as a whole , and thus to investigate the overall condition of the tourism economy and further to understand the entire tourism economy.

关 键 词：旅游业 “节日效应” 事件研究法 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]