我国公共投资最优规模探析——经济长期持续均衡增长视角  

The Optimal Public Investment Scale of China:Based on Long-Term Economic Balance and Sustainable Growth Perspective

作　　者：杨飞虎[1] 伍琴[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,江西南昌330013 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济管理》2014年第6期170-179,共10页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长的公共投资问题研究"(12AJL006);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"我国公共投资效率问题研究"(12YJA790165)

摘　　要：本文基于中国经济长期持续均衡增长视角建立了公共投资最优规模的测算模型,探讨了中国公共投资规模的影响因素,指出公共投资规模与城乡收入差距、人口规模、就业人数等因素负相关,与开放程度、城镇化程度、举债能力、征税成本及市场化程度等因素正相关。本文利用动态面板数据及联立方程方法估算出中国公共投资最优规模约为GDP的9.9%,且公共投资对私人投资存在净挤出效应。提出了缩减公共投资规模、提升公共投资效率、完善公共投资监督及决策机制等政策建议。Based on the framework of Long-term sustained and equilibrium economic growth, this article is to establish a theory model about optimal scale of public investment measurement. The empirical part in this articlefirst analyzes the influence factors of the public investment scale and estimates the optimal scale of public investment in our country. The results show that the scale of public investment is negatively related to the income gap between urban and rural areas, population scale, employment,it is also associated with open degree, degree of urbanization, debt capacity, tax costs and marketization degree. Further, it develops and estimates a model that posits anonlinear relationship between public investment and growth, including the consumers＇ utility-maximizing .producers＇ profit-maximizing and economic growth-maximizing, to determine the optimal public investment GDP share. Theoptimal scale of public investment in China is about 9.9% of GDP, and the effect of public investment on private investment is a net crowding-out effect. However, current scale is far beyond the optimal value, even the size havereached 18.1% in 2011. High levels of public investment scale and significantly crowding-out effect are important factors to restrict the balanced economic growth for a long time.

关 键 词：公共投资 最优规模 经济长期持续均衡增长 政策建议 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]