增值税全面转型对投资和就业的影响——来自2008—2009年全国税收调查的经验证据  

Effects of China's VAT System Transition on Firms' Investment and Employment——Empirical Evidence from the National Tax Surveys of 2008.and 2009

作　　者：毛捷[1] 赵静[2] 黄春元[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第6期14-24,共11页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学规划项目"财税改革与北京加快转变经济发展方式:基于‘营改增'视角的研究"(13JGC070);对外经济贸易大学研究生教学研究项目"税收经济学"(X13007)

摘　　要：基于理论分析,本文首次使用来自全国税收调查的企业层面微观数据,实证分析了2009年增值税全面转型改革对企业固定资产投资和吸纳就业的影响。研究发现:增值税全面转型促进了石油化工业、电力业和装备制造业等行业的企业投资增长,但对汽车制造业和采掘业企业的投资却产生了一定的负面影响;该项改革促进了电力业和汽车制造业企业的就业增长,但对农产品加工业和石油化工业企业的吸纳就业产生了抑制作用。行业的景气度和市场化程度是产生上述效应的重要因素。上述结论表明,增值税改革的影响在不同行业存在明显差异,政府今后在推进"营改增"试点等与增值税相关的改革时,应根据宏观经济形势和行业差异合理设计相关制度,循序渐进地实施改革措施。Based on theoretical analysis, this paper empirically studies the effects of China＇s VAT system transition in 2009 on firms＇ fixed capital investment and employing recruitment by using the data of National Tax Survey from 2008 to 2009 for the first time. Main findings are as follows. （1） The transition stimulates the investment in some industries like Petrochemical, Electricity and Equipment Manufacturing, but Automotive Industry and Extractive Industry are exceptional. （2） The transition impedes the growth of employment in Processing Industry for Agricultural Products and Petrochemical Industry, but improves the employment in industries like Electricity and Automotive. The prosperity and marketization degree of industries are key factors determining the effects above. Our findings show that the effects of China＇s VAT system transition are various in different industries, implying that when implementing the VAT-related reforms like the reform program to turn business tax into VAT, Chinese government should design relevant institutions with regard to macroeconomic situation and industrial difference, and gradually put reform measures into practice.

关 键 词：增值税全面转型 固定资产投资 吸纳就业 趋势评分匹配 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F283F249.2