出口持续时间会促进新市场开拓吗——来自中国微观产品层面的证据  

Will Export Duration Promote New Market Entry?——Evidence from China's Micro-level Data

作　　者：陈勇兵[1] 王晓伟[1] 谭桑[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第6期79-89,99,共12页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203239);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(10YJC790029);中央高校基本科研业务费(31541110819)的资助

摘　　要：后金融危机时期如何保持中国出口常态增长成为当前中国外部经济面临的难题。本文基于CEPII-BACI数据库1995-2010年中国HS6分位数产品出口贸易数据,运用Logit回归模型研究先前的出口持续时间对于产品进入新市场的概率的影响。研究发现,出口持续时间可以促进产品进入新市场,且出口持续时间每增加一年,产品进入新市场的概率将提高0.17倍;更重要的是,出口持续时间与新市场进入之间存在一种"倒U型"曲线的关系,即在最初阶段出口持续时间会促进新市场的进入,但是这种影响随着时间递减,且当出口持续时间达到一个临界值时,这种积极的影响会消失。这一结论的政策含义在于,政府应适当鼓励企业深化现有贸易关系,这更有助于开拓新市场,进而保持中国出口常态增长。How to maintain the normal growth of Chinese exports has become the current issue of China＇s external economic during the post-financial crisis period. Based on the CEPII-BACI dataset of Chinese HS six-digit product export trade data from 1995 to 2010, this paper uses the Logit Regression Model to explore the relationship between prior export duration and new market entry. According to our empirical study, we arrive at the following conclusions that prior export duration can promote products to enter new market, and when export duration lasts 1 year longer, the probability of entering a new market will increase by 0.17 time. But when we join the square of export duration, we find that there exists a Ushaped effect between prior export duration and new market entry, which means that prior export duration increases the likelihood of new market entry at the initial stage, but this effect diminishes with time, and when the export duration arrives at a critical value, the positive effect will disappear. This finding suggests that government should appropriately encourage firms to continue the relationship of existing trade flows, and establish relationship with new trading partners, thus to insure that China＇s exports are in a sustainable and stable development.

关 键 词：出口持续时间 LOGIT回归模型 新市场进入 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]