CCM3大气环流模式月-季尺度预报初步试验  

THE MONTHLY-AND SEASONAL-SCALE FORECAST EXPERIMENT USING NCAR CCM3 CLIMATE MODEL

作　　者：余建锐[1] 董敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2001年第1期54-60,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局"九五"重中之重课题"并行计算技术在数值预报中的应用"第2课题第2专题和国家高性能计算机基金(批准号为981008)

摘　　要：以 1 991和 1 994年 NCEP再分析格点资料作初始场 ,用 NCAR气候模式 CCM3进行了48次月、季预报 ,针对 50 0 h Pa高度和中国降水资料对其预测能力进行了检验 .结果表明 ,CCM3对月尺度的高度场的预报有一定的能力 .对中国 1 60站的降水距平进行月尺度和季节预报 ,其准确程度可以和目前经验预报的水平相当 .比较使用实际海温和用外推法预测的海温两种下边界条件所作的预报结果发现 ,两者的效果差异不大 .Using the NCAR CCM3 climate model, twenty eight monthly and seasonal forecasts have been made for 1991 and 1994 with the NCEP reanalysis data as initial conditions. The prediction capacity of the model for the 500 hPa height and precipitation in China are examined. The result shows that the model has certain capability in predicting the height field in monthly scale. The ability of CCM3 in forecasting the monthly or seasonal rainfall in 160 stations of China is similar to the synoptic and experimental methods. Comparison of the forecasts from extrapolated and observed SSTA shows that there is no much difference.

关 键 词：CCM3模式 月季预测 检验 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434