基于证据推理的机场场务保障安全风险综合评价模型  

Safety risk comprehensive assessment model of airport service support based on evidential reasoning

作　　者：张潮[1] 赵贤利[1] 罗帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2014年第3期407-413,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71271163)

摘　　要：从人员保障风险、设备设施保障风险、环境保障风险和管理保障风险4个角度构建机场场务保障安全风险评估指标体系.基于证据推理理论对评估指标体系的定量指标和定性指标进行综合评价,有效处理了主观判断和客观历史数据.选取4个机场作为评价对象,构建了包含总属性、4个二级属性和16个基本属性的属性层次结构,运用智能决策系统软件(IDS,Intelligent Decision System)计算得出机场场务保障安全风险综合评价值、二级和三级指标的风险评价值、4个机场二级指标之间的比较以及各机场的项目分布式评估结果.风险综合评价模型的构建为场务保障提供了决策依据,从而为机场场务保障安全管理导入新的研究内容.The safety risk assessment index system of airport service support is built from human factors, equipment and facilities factors, environmental factors and management factors. The quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators are assessed based on evidential reasoning. The method deals with the subjective judgment and objective historical data effectively. Four airports are selected as the evaluation object. The attribute hierarchies are constructed which contains the total property, four two-level properties and sixteen basic properties. The intelligent decision system （IDS） is used to calculate the evaluating value of airport service support, risk evaluation of secondary and tertiary indicators, the comparison of four air- ports＇ secondary indicators and the assessment result of distributed airport project. The safety risk comprehensive assessment model is built for providing decision making of airport service support, which imports a new research field of safety management in airport service support.

关 键 词：场务保障 证据推理 风险评价 智能决策系统 

分 类 号：F560.81[经济管理—产业经济]