社会融资规模和融资结构对实体经济的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Aggregate Financing and Financial Structure on the Real Economy

作　　者：郭丽虹[1] 张祥建[2] 徐龙炳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2014年第6期66-74,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273164;71272010);上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZS057);教育部人文社会科学一般项目(11YJA630200);上海财经大学创新团队支持计划的资助

摘　　要：社会融资规模宏观调控指标自2011年推出以来,其对宏观经济的影响引起了理论界和实务界的广泛关注。关注的焦点在于社会融资规模对实体经济发展会产生什么影响。与此同时,社会融资结构也发生了较大变化,非信贷融资呈高速增长趋势。那么,社会融资结构的变化又将对实体经济发展产生怎样的影响?本文以中国31个省份的月度数据为样本,考察了社会融资规模以及融资结构对实体经济的影响。研究结果表明,社会融资规模的增加显著促进了实体经济发展,不过,社会融资规模的增长存在一定的门槛水平。与此同时,不同的社会融资结构对实体经济的影响并不相同。其中,银行贷款和股票融资对实体经济增长具有显著的促进作用,而票据融资对实体经济发展则产生了显著的负面影响,债券融资的影响并不显著。本文的研究结果表明,保持社会融资规模合理增长,调整和优化社会融资结构对于促进实体经济部门发展具有重要意义。Since the introduction of Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy （AFRE） as an indicator in 2011, its ef- fect on macro economy has attracted high attention in the theoretical and practical field. The focus is what effect of AFRE will have on the real economy. Meanwhile, the financial structure has also changed, with non-credit financing increasing rapidly in particular. So, how will the changing financial structure affect the real economy？ This paper analyzes the effect of AFRE and financial structure on the real economy using the monthly data of 31 provinces. We find that AFRE will promote the de- velopment of the real economy, but there exists the threshold value of AFRE. Moreover, different financial structure will give different effect on the real economy. Bank loan and stock financing wiU promote the development of the real economy, but note financing will impede the real economy, and the effect of debt financing is not significant. Our evidences indicate that it＇ s important and meaningful to keep AFRE increase reasonably and continuously adjust and optimize the financial structure.

关 键 词：社会融资规模 融资结构 实体经济 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]