福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法  

A Quantitative Method for Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Intensity

作　　者：邹燕[1] 叶殿秀[2] 林毅[3] 刘爱鸣[3] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气候中心,福州350001 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]福建省气象台,福州350001

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2014年第3期360-364,共5页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906014);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201304)

摘　　要：该文以福建省为例,探讨了区域性暴雨过程的识别方法和综合强度评估模型。采用福建省66个国家级气象观测站1961-2010年逐日降水量资料,首先在给定区域性暴雨过程识别方法的基础上,筛选出941次区域性暴雨过程;其次选取区域最大日降水量、区域最大过程降水量、区域暴雨范围和区域暴雨持续时间4项暴雨过程指标,采用百分位数方法分别确定4项指标的等级划分标准;采用相关系数法确定各指标权重,构建福建区域性暴雨过程的综合强度评估模型,并给出福建区域性暴雨过程的综合强度等级划分标准。业务服务和历史事件验证表明:采用该方法的评估结果较为合理,且与历史重大暴雨事件具有良好的一致性。A quantitative method for assessment of regional heavy rainfall intensity is proposed, cases of Fujian Province are taken as examples. Based on the daily precipitation dataset of 66 stations in Fujian from 1961 to 2010, a definition of the regional heavy rainfall is first determined. Then four indices including maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation during the process are constructed as factors to evaluate an objective assessment model of composite intensity of regional rainfall. Using statistical are studied. Finally, with historical cases, dicati an assessment model of composite intensity of regional rainstorm is built. the assessment model is reasonable and consistent with historical extreme ng factors Compared cases.

关 键 词：区域性暴雨过程 强度 评估模型 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]