基于土壤墒情模型的旱情评估预测模型研究  

Drought Evaluation and Forecast Model Based on Soil Moisture Simulation

作　　者：陈小凤[1,2] 王再明[3] 王振龙[1,2] 李瑞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省水利水资源重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽蚌埠233000 [3]中水淮河规划设计研究有限公司,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第5期165-169,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(200901026;201001010)

摘　　要：干旱灾害是对农业生产影响最为严重的自然灾害之一,严重制约了安徽省淮北地区经济社会可持续发展。首先简要介绍安徽省淮北地区干旱特点及原因,构建了区域干旱评价指标体系并划分不同季节旱情等级标准,然后建立了基于土壤墒情、降水量及地下水埋深的综合旱情评估预测模型。将干旱评价指标体系及评估预测模型分别应用到2008年冬旱评估、2009年3月份干旱预测评估,结果表明:该模型预测评估结果基本能够反映区域干旱的实际情况,能够为区域防旱抗旱提供技术服务。Drought is one of the most major natural disasters in the Huaibei region in Anhui Province, and it has restricted the devel- opments of the society, economy and agriculture. In this paper, the drought features and drought causes in Huaibei of Anhui Prov- ince were introduced firstly. And then the drought classification in different seasons were fixed by the method of frequency analysis. Based on soil moisture simulation, precipitation and groundwater depth, the drought forecast and evaluation model was established. The drought index system and the model were used to forecast and evaluate the drought of 2008 winter and march 2009. The results show that forecast and evaluation can reflect the regional real drought condition. And it can provide technical support for drought prevention and drought fighting.

关 键 词：旱情评价指标体系 旱情评估 旱情预测 土壤墒情模型 安徽省淮北地区 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]