降水预报准确度分析及其在提高降水利用率中的作用  

Accuracy analysis of rainfall forecast and its application to improvement of utilization rate of rainfall

作　　者：张星星[1,2] 朱成立[2,3] 彭世彰[1] 罗玉峰[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第3期230-233,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51179048);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD25B07);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2011B02214)

摘　　要：为提高降水利用率,以南京地区为例,搜集了中央气象台2011年6月26日至10月28日南京市未来4 d降雨预报值及南京气象站实测降雨数据,分析各等级降雨预报的准确度及其在水稻灌溉决策中的应用。结果表明:无雨和小雨预报时准确度较高,如达到灌溉标准的下限可直接按计算灌水定额实施灌溉;预报为中雨和大雨时,实际发生降雨的概率较高,因此可适当推迟2 d进行灌溉;如果没有降雨或者降雨不能满足作物生长需要,则可进行补充灌溉。In order to improve the utilization rate of rainfall in Nanjing City, rainfall data forecasted by the National Meteorological Center over a forthcoming four-day period and observed rainfall data from the Nanjing Meteorological Station for the period from June 26 to October 28, 2011 were collected. The accuracy of rainfall forecasts and their applications to rice irrigation decision-making were analyzed. The results show that the accuracy was high in forecasting light rainfall and no rainfall, and the calculated irrigation water could be applied with a low risk of wasting irrigation water. When moderate rainfall and heavy rainfall were forecasted, there was a high probability of the occurrence of rainfall, and two-day delayed irrigation could be applied. Supplementary irrigation could be applied if there was no rainfall or if the rainfall could not meet the requirements of crop growth.

关 键 词：水稻灌溉 节水灌溉 降雨预报准确性 灌溉决策 南京地区 

分 类 号：S275.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]