海河流域水质评价与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Quality in Haihe River Basin

作　　者：李亚楠[1] 孙宝盛[1] 张燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2014年第2期177-181,共5页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：天津市自然科学基金重点项目"污水处理中EPS;SMP与生物多样性技术研究"(07JCZDJC02100)

摘　　要：以海河流域为例,选择灰色关联分析法对其水质进行了评价。由于传统的灰色关联分析存在一定缺陷,故选择两种改进的灰色关联分析法进行水质评价,并比较了这两种方法的优缺点。采用对应分析法,将采样点与变量有机地结合起来进行了分析。最后使用灰色预测模型对海河流域水质情况进行了预测。结果表明:(1)将基于改进AHP法权重的灰色关联分析法与对应分析法联用可以全面认识流域水质状况,给出科学合理的评价结果;(2)海河流域污染来源主要为农业面源污染与生活污水污染。This paper used gray correlation analysis method to evaluate the water quality of Haihe River basin.However,the traditional grey correlation analysis has drawbacks due to subjectivity in calculating relatedness.To overcome this defect,this paper chosen two kinds of improved gray correlation analysis methods for the water quality evaluation,and compared the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods.The combined application of improved gray correlation analysis method and correspondence analysis method can reach to scientific and reasonable evaluation conclusions.Meanwhile,this paper predicted water quality using grey prediction model.The results showed that：（1）Combination of the improved AHP weights of gray relational analysis and correspondence analysis can provide a nice way to understand basin water quality and reach to a rational evaluation result;（2）The main sources of pollution in the Haihe River basin is agricultural nonpoint source pollution and sewage pollution.

关 键 词：水质评价与预测 灰色关联分析 对应分析 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]