中国土地利用系统健康动态评价  

Dynamic Evaluation of Health of Land Use System in China

作　　者：张锐[1] 刘友兆[1] 丑建立[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2014年第2期197-203,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"农村居民点整理对农户土地利用变化影响研究"(71173112);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_301)

摘　　要：在界定土地利用系统健康内涵的基础上,构建了基于"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)模型的评价指标体系,采用熵值法和灰色预测模型,对中国土地利用系统健康状态进行了评价。研究结果表明:(1)1999—2008年中国土地利用系统健康水平总体不断提高,综合指数从0.393 5增加到0.533 1,健康等级经历了"不健康—临界"状态的演变过程;(2)土地利用系统健康的压力指数总体上呈现下降趋势,状态指数和响应指数呈现上升趋势;(3)固定资产投资年增长率、人均耕地面积、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度、地均GDP等是土地利用系统健康等级提升的关键因素;(4)2009—2015年中国土地利用系统健康水平呈现稳步上升趋势,2014年土地利用系统健康等级达到"亚健康"。并提出了提高土地利用系统健康水平的一些具体措施。On the basis of defining the meaning of the health of land use system,the evaluation index system for the health of land use system was constructed based on the press—state—response（PSR）model,then an empirical analysis was conducted in China by entropy method and grey prediction model.The results showed that：（1）The health level of land use system had been gradually improved from 1999to 2008in China,with the comprehensive index increasing from 0.393 5to 0.533 1.The health of land use system generally experienced two stages,i.e.,unhealthy and critical state.（2）The pressure index showed a downward trend, while status index and response index showed a rising trend.（3）The growth rate of fixed asset investment, per capita cultivated land,land reclamation rate,extent of soil erosion and per capita GDP were proved to be key constraints for further improvement of the health of land use system.（4）The health level of land use system show a steady upward trend from 2009to 2015,and the health degree of land use system reaches the sub-health state in 2014.Finally,some measures was proposed for the further improvement of the health of land use system.

关 键 词：土地利用系统 健康 灰色预测模型 熵值法 PSR模型 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]