“十二五”各省区CO_2排放控制及减排压力评价  

The 12th Five-Year Provincial Carbon Dioxide Emission Control and Assessment of Reduction Pressure in China

作　　者：邓宣凯[1] 喻艳华[2] 刘艳芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,中国湖北武汉430079 [2]江汉大学交叉学科研究院,中国湖北武汉430056

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第5期155-161,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(2012BAJ22B02)

摘　　要：对中国各省区十二五期间的CO2排放控制量进行测算,分析了各区域减排的压力和国家整体目标的实现程度。在各省区完全执行国家减排分配方案的情况下,国家整体减排目标实现92%以上,十二五减排目标还不能完全实现。2015年全国30个省区CO2排放总量达到152亿t,十二五期间增加排放量40亿t。虽然排放强度目标设置为下降,但是2015年各省区CO2排放量在2010年基础上仍然有较大幅度的提升,增加量在数量上差异较大,分布上东部和北部地区的增加量高于其他地区。对比了各省区十一五期间的实际增量和十二五控制增量,发现沿海地区和华北地区减排压力较大,中西部和东北地区减排压力较小。在基期年和目标年,文章都具体分析了排放量、排放强度和排放增量的空间分布情况。最后针对计算过程和结果分析,提出了政策建议。This study calculated the amount of controlled carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions in Chinese provinces during the 12th five-year planning period as well as analyzed regional emission reduction pressure and the reduction target realization achieved in the whole country. If each province were to implement the national emission allocation scheme, the realization of the emission reduction target will reach 92% or more. However, the 12th five-year emission reduction target cannot be fully realized. In 2015, 30 provinces will emit a total of 15.2 billion tons of CO2, increasing by 4 billion tons during the 12th five-year period. Although the emission intensity target is set to decline for every province, the CO2 emissions in 2015 will continue to increase compared with the CO2 emissions in 2010. The amount of increase exhibits a significant difference among regions, with the amount of emissions from eastern and northern China being higher than that of other regions. Comparing the actual increments during the llth and 12th five-year periods, coastal and northern China will be faced with greater pressure to reduce emissions. The central, western, and northeast regions face a less pressure. In the base and target years, the spatial distribution of CO2 emissions, emission intensity, and emissions increment are measured. Finally, a number of suggestions are proposed based on the calculation process and result analysis.

关 键 词：CO2减排 省区 控制总量 增加量 减排压力 中国 

分 类 号：U12[交通运输工程]