低渗透油田开发时机决策模型研究及应用  

STUDY AND APPLICATION OF THE OPPORTUNITY DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR LOW-PERMEABILITY OILFIELD DEVELOPMENT

作　　者：陈志敏[1] 李榕[1] 杨晓庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2014年第3期68-71,共4页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

摘　　要：低渗透油田在目前政策和经济技术条件下,采用常规的贴现现金流量法,大部分储量无法经济有效动用.而随着开发技术、油价等外界条件的变化,这部分储量通常可以经济有效开发.在国内外关于现金流模型和实物期权评价研究成果的基础上建立了低渗透油田开发时机判别标准,体现出风险和不确定的影响,准确地评价出油田的开发时机价值,为不确定条件下的低渗透油田开发决策提供了一个更准确的评价方法.结合建立的判别标准,应用资本资产定价模型建立了开发时机决策模型,为合理确定低渗透油田的开发时机和产量规模提供了依据.Under the current policies and economic-technological conditions, most of the low-permeability oilfield reserves are not effectively developed by means of conventional discounted cash flow method. But along with the changes of the other external conditions such as developing techniques, oil price and so on, the reserves can usually be economically and effectively developed. On the bases of the study results such as the cash flow model and real options evaluation at home and abroad, the identifying criteria of the development opportunity of the low-permeabili- ty oilfield are established, which reflect the risk and uncertainty influences and more accurately evaluate the value of the oilfield development opportunity, thus a more accurate evaluating method is provided for the development decision making of the low-permeability oilfield under the uncertain conditions. Integrating with the established identifying criteria, a development opportunity decision-making model is established by capital asset pricing model, and moreover the evidences are provided for the rational determination of the development opportunity and production scale of the low-permeability oilfield.

关 键 词：不确定条件 低渗透油田 现金流 实物期权 产能项目 资本资产定价模型 开发时机 

分 类 号：TE322[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]