NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO  

作　　者：李新周 刘晓东 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Xi'an Jiaotong University

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2014年第2期121-134,共14页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB03020601);National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB833406);National Science Foundation of China(41290255)

摘　　要：The regional climate model(RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation(EP) in the next 100 years under the A1 B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1 B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.The regional climate model （RegCM3）, developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation （EP） in the next 100 years under the A1B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.

关 键 词：global warming climate prediction East China extreme precipitation numerical simulation 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]