俄罗斯与乌克兰关系走势分析  

The Analysis on Relationship Trend between Russia and Ukraine

作　　者：沈莉华[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学马克思主义学院 [2]黑龙江大学俄语学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2014年第3期35-45,共11页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

基　　金：2011年国家博士后科学基金资助项目<后冷战时期的俄乌关系>(项目编号:2011M500698);2011年黑龙江省博士后科学基金资助项目<后冷战时代的俄乌关系>(项目编号:LBH-Z11049);2012年黑龙江省哲学社会科学基金专项项目<后冷战时代的俄乌关系研究>(项目编号:12D088)阶段性成果

摘　　要：未来俄乌关系将受到多种因素的影响和制约。从俄罗斯角度看,深化与乌克兰等独联体国家合作是其长期的战略目标。尽管这一目标在克里米亚并入俄罗斯版图后严重受挫,俄罗斯仍将不遗余力地维持对乌克兰的影响力。对乌克兰而言,尽快加入欧盟,融入欧洲文明大家庭是未来乌克兰外交政策的首要目标。考虑到乌克兰西化政策给俄罗斯带来的消极影响和乌克兰对俄罗斯严重的能源依赖等因素,未来一段时间内乌克兰将成为俄罗斯和欧盟之间的缓冲地带。在欧盟、北约与俄罗斯围绕乌克兰地缘政治博弈长期存在,而乌克兰国内东西部分歧难以弥合的大背景下,多种因素、多种政治力量交互作用决定了未来俄乌关系将充满变数。The future relationship between Russia and Ukraine will be affected and restricted by various factors. From Russia＇s point of view, to deep the cooperation with Ukraine and other CIS countries is its long-term strategic goal. Although, this goal suffered a setback after Crimea joined into Russian territory, Russia will spare no effort to maintain influence on Ukraine. For Ukraine, join into the European Union （the big family of European civilization） as soon as possible, is the principal goal of Ukraine＇s foreign policy in the future. Considering the factors like the negative effects of the Ukraine’s westernization policy to Russia and Ukraine’s energy depends on Russia seriously, Ukraine will be the buffer zone between Russia and the European Union over a period of time. The Ukraine geopolitical game around the European Union, NATO and Russia will exist for a long time. Ukraine＇s domestic east-west differences are unbridgeable. The interaction of variety factors and political forces determine that the future relationship between Russia and Ukraine will be full of variables.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 乌克兰 美国 欧盟 

分 类 号：D83[政治法律—政治学]