中国积极财政政策有效性及政策期限结构研究  

The Effectiveness and Term Structure of Active Fiscal Policy

作　　者：刘金全[1] 印重[1] 庞春阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2014年第6期31-43,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘十二五'期间中国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究"(批准号10ZD&006)

摘　　要：后金融危机时期以来的经验证据表明,积极财政政策的实施对维持中国经济平稳增长,减缓经济下行压力具有显著的作用。本文运用施加符号约束的向量自回归模型,分析并对比了中国基础财政政策冲击与积极财政政策冲击对宏观经济的影响,并以期限结构理论为支撑,分析了积极财政政策的政策效果。从影响实际经济走势的经验分析看,中国积极财政政策在有效刺激实际产出增长的同时,能够产生投资的"挤入效应",也在一定程度上产生了消费的"挤出效应",推动物价水平的上涨,并体现出与货币政策一定程度的独立性,积极财政政策能够显著改善对实体经济的作用效果,但同时可能带来通胀风险:从政策效果的期限结构看,中国积极财政政策对产出水平具有正向的累积冲击效果,乘数作用随时间的推移呈现倒"U"型,积极财政对于产出的拉动大于财政成本的累积。为此,中国应该在充分考虑政策成本的前提下,发挥积极财政支出政策对产业转型的引导作用,加强财政政策与货币政策的有效组合,这将有助于中国经济在"十二五"期间实现平稳发展和防止经济出现持续下滑。Since Post Financial Crisis Era, empirical evidence shows that active fiscal policy has a significant effect on maintaining steady path of China＇s economy growth and relieving the economic downturn pressure. In this paper, by employing sign-restriction vector autoregression model, we analyze the impulse response of fundamental and active fiscal policy shocks, and consider the stabilizing effect of active fiscal spending policy based on term structure theory. In the empirical analysis of China＇s active fiscal policy affecting on real economic trends, we found that government spending stimulates output, crowding-in the fixed investment, to some extent while crowding-out social consumption and raising the price level. Besides, fiscal policy stance is still independent to monetary policy to a certain degree, and active fiscal policy can significantly improve the effects on the real economy, but it may bring inflation risks. Viewing from the term structure of policy effect, one active fiscal spending has a positive accumulated effect on gross output, with the dynamic multiplier exhibiting an inversed U shape over the time horizon and by applying active fiscal policy, the pulling effect of output is greater than the cumulative fiscal cost. The policy implication showed by the empirical results suggests that with considering the policy cost, the Chinese government should make full use of the leading role played by government spending in transiting current industrial structure. Moreover, a sound interaction of fiscal and monetary policy would precipitate the pace of current economic transition and prevent the economy from declining during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period in China.

关 键 词：财政政策冲击 财政支出 符号约束 有效性 期限结构 

分 类 号：F123.1[经济管理—世界经济]