中国电力行业碳排放变化的驱动因素研究  

Driving Factors for the Evolution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electricity Sector in China

作　　者：侯建朝[1,2] 史丹[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100045 [2]上海电力学院经济与管理学院,上海200090 [3]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2014年第6期44-56,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"中国与周边国家电力互联互通战略研究--以俄罗斯和东南亚国家为例"(批准号13&ZD168);上海市哲学社会科学项目"中国省区电力生产碳排放和电力消费隐含碳排放差异及其驱动因素研究"(批准号2012JBJ006)

摘　　要：电力行业CO_2排放占中国总CO_2排放的比重很大,从电力行业角度研究CO_2排放变化的驱动因素对于制定有针对性的CO_2减排政策具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文不仅考虑电力生产活动对电力行业CO_2排放变化的影响,而且考虑电力输配、国际贸易和终端消费活动的影响,利用对数平均权重分解法把电力行业CO_2排放变化分解为10种驱动因素,并对典型时期和每一驱动因素进行了分析。研究结果表明:1991—2012年,中国电力行业CO_2排放量增长了27.66亿吨,对电力行业CO_2排放增长起促进作用的因素为人均GDP、产业结构、人口总量、输配电损失量、燃料结构、居民生活电耗强度和电力净出口量,其贡献度分别为99.1%、11.3%、8.1%、6.3%、3.9%、2.3%和0.4%。对电力行业CO_2排放增长起抑制作用的因素为产业部门电耗强度、发电煤耗率和电力生产结构,其贡献度分别为-15.6%、-11.1%和-4.6%。典型时期研究结果表明,经济增速放缓对电力生产效率和电力使用效率提升有着积极的作用。无论是区间分解还是逐年分解结果均显示人均GDP是电力行业CO_2排放增长最主要的正向驱动因素。中国作为最大的发展中国家之一,预计未来经济还将维持较高的增长速度,随之而来的电力需求增长使得电力行业的减排面临着巨大压力。要想真正实现电力行业CO_2排放的减少,需要从电力行业产业链中发电、输配电、国际贸易和终端电力消费等环节着手,采取有利于减少CO_2排放的综合措施。It is of great theoretical and practical significance for putting a targeted policy on emissions mitigation to explore the driving factors CO_2 emissions from electricity sector in China due to its large contribution to overall emissions. The paper extended the application of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） method to a full consideration of generation activities ,as well as the power transmission and distribution, international trade and consumption activities, the evolution of CO_2 emissions from electricity sector in China was decomposed by LMDI method into nine driving factors during the period 1991 to 2012, furthermore the typical periods and each driving factors are analyzed respectively. The results show that China＇s CO_2 emissions from electricity sector grow by 2.766 billion tons from 1991 to 2012. The positive driving factors are per capita GDP, industrial structure, total population, transmission and distribution losses, fuel structure of generation,household electricity intensity and power net exports. The respective contributions are 99.1%, 11.3%, 8.1%, 6.3%, 3.9%, 2.3% and 0.4%. The negative driving factors are power intensity of production sector,gross coal consumption rate, electricity generation structure. The respective contributions are -15.6%, -11.1% and -4.6%. The typical periods＇ research results show that the slower of economic growth plays a positive role on efficiency improvement of power generation and power utilization. Both period and yearly decomposition results show that per capita GDP is most important positive driving factor of CO_2 emissions growth of electricity sector. As one of the largest developing countries,China will maintain a high economic growth rate in the future. Subsequently, Chinese electricity sector will face great emission reduction pressure with the growth of electricity demand. To achieve target, Chinese government should take comprehensive measures to reduce power industry CO_2 emissions which considering power generation, transmission and distr

关 键 词：电力行业 CO2排放 分解分析 中国 

分 类 号：F246.6[经济管理—劳动经济]