我国城乡居民通货膨胀承受力比较及压力测试  

Comparison of Urban and Rural Residents Inflation Affordability and Stress-testing in China

作　　者：李腊生[1] 蔡春霞[2] 张烨[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心,天津300222 [2]北京印刷学院经济管理学院,北京102600 [3]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《经济问题》2014年第6期46-52,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家统计局2012年规划项目重点课题"我国居民通胀承受力测度及压力测试"(2012LZ039)

摘　　要：运用居民通货膨胀承受力测度方法,同时借鉴商业银行进行压力测试的思想与方法,对城镇居民和农村居民的通货膨胀承受力进行了测度与比较。通过构建城乡居民通货膨胀承受力压力测试模型,比较分析了决定城乡居民通货膨胀承受力的宏观经济因子,即城镇为政府财政支出和平均受教育年限,农村为固定资产投资增长率和平均受教育年限,依据情景分析法,分别对我国城乡居民通货膨胀承受力进行了压力测试分析,并结合压力测试结果和我国当前的实际经济状况,提出了相应的政策建议。Combined with the basic idea and analysis method of macro stress -testing usedby the commercial bank, this paper adopted the inflation affordability measure method of residents in china, to measure and compare inflation affordability of urban and rural residents. Through the construction of measuring model of the inflation af- fordability of urban and rural residents in china, the paper compare and analyze macro economic factors of determi- ning inflation affordability of urban and rural residents, that the town residents is fiscal expenditure of government and average years of schooling, and the rural residents is fixed assets investment growth rate and average years of schooling. According to the scenario analysis method, macrostress -testing is respectively employed on assessing inflation affordability of urban and rural residents. Finally, combined with results of stress - testing and China＇ s current macroeconomic situation, the paper presents the relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：城乡居民 通货膨胀承受力 宏观压力测试模型 情景分析法 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]