贸易开放对非正规就业规模影响的实证研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据  

Empirical Research of the Impact of Trade Opening on Informal Employment Scale: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Evidence from China

作　　者：徐蔼婷[1] 刘波[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2014年第6期86-96,共11页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"非正规部门规模;效应及国民经济运行协调度"(71073142);国家自然科学基金项目"城市化进程中的非正规部门形成和动态演化"(71173190);浙江省哲社规划项目"浙江省城市化进程中的非正规部门形成机制研究"(13ZJQN060YB);浙江省本科院校中青年学科带头人学术攀登项目"非正规部门效应统计测度与综合指数设计"(PD2013164)

摘　　要：鉴于理论研究和经验证据无法为发展中国家出现的贸易开放与非正规就业规模同步扩张的现象提供一致解释,文章利用2000-2012年省级数据,从全国、区域和时期多个维度就贸易开放对非正规就业规模的影响进行了实证考察。从全国来看,贸易开放显著扩大了非正规就业规模,并且进口贸易对非正规就业规模的影响大于出口贸易对非正规就业规模的影响。从区域来看,内陆地区贸易开放对非正规劳动力的引致需求大于沿海地区。金融危机后,进口贸易对非正规就业规模的影响逐步小于出口贸易对非正规就业规模的影响。另外,经济发展水平、城乡收入差距和城镇失业率对非正规就业规模的作用也呈现区域性和阶段性特征。基于实证结果,提出了相应的政策建议。In view of the fact that theoretical research and empirical evidence are still unable to provide a consistent interpreta- tion for the simultaneous expansion of trade opening and informal employment scale in developing countries, this paper quantitatively measures the impact of trade opening on informal employment scale from multiple dimensions based on the 2000 -2012 provincial panel data of China. From a national perspective, trade opening has significant positive impact on the informal employment scale and the impact of import on informal employment is greater than that of export. From a regional perspective, compared to the coastal are- as, the trade opening in inland areas tends to expand the scale of informal employment. After the 2008 financial crisis, the impact of export on informal employment is greater than that of import. What is more, the impact of the level of economic development, ur- ban-rural income gap and the rate of unemployment on informal employment varies in different regions and phases. Based on the em- pirical results, the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：非正规就业 贸易开放 贸易自由化 区域比较 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]