基于时间序列的金华市梅汛期降雨量预测  

Forecast of the Meiyu Rainfall in Jinhua City Based on Time Series

作　　者：应瑶[1] 冯利华[1] 王学烨[1] 姚丹蕾 赵锃爽 钟建利[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学地理系,浙江金华321004

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第17期5607-5609,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201310345019)

摘　　要：根据金华市7个县（市）1968～2012年梅雨汛期降水量的实测数据，对金华市梅汛期降水基本特征进行分析，并运用平稳时间序列的线性外推法建立各个地区降水量的预测模型。结果表明，金华地区梅汛期降水量的年际变化呈多峰型，但从总体形势上看．近45年的梅雨量是呈上升趋势；经检验，浦江等地区预测的中长期结果具有较高的精度，说明平稳时间序列的线性外推法建立的预测模型对这些地区梅雨期降水量的预测较准确，此预测模型可以为中长期降水预报及政府部门决策服务提供强有力的科学支持。According to measured data of precipitation in Meiyu flood season in 7 counties of Jinhua City during 1968 - 2012, the basic features were analyzed, linear extrapolation method of stationary time series was used to forecast precipitation from region to region. The result shows that ： interannual change of precipitation of Jinhua City assumes one more apexes. But in all, change of precipitation of flood season is increasing for the whole time; Upon examination, the models have satisfactory prediction performance in some regions such as Pujiang. It means that linear extrapolation method of stationary time series are accurate for the forecast of the Meiyu rainfall in these regions, which provide scientific support for medium and long term precipitation forecast and government decision-making services.

关 键 词：降水量 预测模型 时间序列 梅汛期 金华市 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]