树轮宽度记录的松潘地区年平均气温变化  

Annual temperature recorded in tree-ring from Songpan region

作　　者：李金建[1,2] 邵雪梅[3] 李媛媛[1,2] 秦宁生[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [2]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《科学通报》2014年第15期1446-1458,共13页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41375116;41075066);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106013-6-6);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05080201)资助

摘　　要：利用采自四川省松潘县境内3个样本点的冷杉树轮样本建立了树轮宽度标准年表（STD），并合并成了区域年表（RC）. 与气候要素进行相关分析发现，该地区树木径向生长主要受到温度的限制，树轮年表与多个月份的气温相关显著，其中，区域年表与前一年9月至当年8月（P9C8）平均气温的相关最高（r=0.576，P〈0.0001）. 在此基础上，利用区域年表重建了松潘地区1701年以来的年平均气温变化，重建方程稳定，其方差解释量达33.2%（R^2adj=32%，N=59，F=28.33）. 重建结果显示，在过去310 年间，该地区先后经历了8个偏暖阶段和7个偏冷阶段. 通过时空相关分析，表明重建序列具有较好的时空代表性. 此外，重建结果不仅通过了统计检验，还得到了海螺沟冰川末端变化、周边地区其他树轮资料重建的温度结果以及气象灾害历史记录的验证，证实了重建序列的可靠性. 多窗谱分析结果显示该地区气温变化存在显著的2-3 a，26 a，准33 a和准40 a周期变化.Three tree-ring STD chronologies of Abies faxoniana were developed from Songpan region Sichuan Province, and a regional chronology（RC） was established based on the three STD chronologies. The calculation shows that the tree-ring width was significantly correlated with temperature, and the RC had the highest correlation（r=0.576, P〈0.0001）with mean temperature from prior September to current August. Based on the analyses, we reconstructed annual temperature from 1701 to 2010. The reconstruction explained 33.2% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1952-2010（R^2adj=32%, N=59, F=28.33）. In the past 310 years, there were 8 warm periods and 7 cool periods. According to analysis of temporal and spatial correlation, it indicated that the reconstructed series with good spatial and temporal representation. Our reconstruction was validated by other tree-ring based temperature reconstructions from the surrounding area, glacier advances and retreats, and the documented climate disaster events. MTM analysis shows that there exist periods of 2-3 a, 26 a, quasi-33 a and quasi-40 a cycles.

关 键 词：树木年轮 松潘 年平均气温 重建 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]