中国林化产品出口贸易影响因素与发展潜力——基于贸易引力模型的分析  

Analysis of the Influencing Factor and Potential of Chinese Forest Chemical Products Export Trade Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：王术华[1] 田治威[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第6期44-55,共12页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：文章运用2002-2011年中国对30个林化产品出口贸易国的面板数据，构建贸易引力模型对中国林化产品整体出口贸易的影响因素及发展潜力进行分析。结果表明：贸易双方的经济规模、森林资源差异、共同边界等因素对中国林化产品出口有显著的正向影响；贸易双方的人口数量、距离、人民币对出口国货币汇率等因素有显著的负向影响；人均收入差异、同属于APEC成员国等因素的影响不显著。在此基础上．测算了中国林化产品出口贸易潜力系数．并提出了促进中国林化产品出口贸易的对策建议．Using the panel data of 2002-2011, this paper analyzes the influencing factor and potential of Chinese forest chemical products export trade based on gravity model. The results show that the economic scale of both sides, the difference of forest resources between the two countries and common border have great positive effects on Chinese forest chemical products export trade. Population sizes of both sides, the spatial distance between the two countries and exchange rate have negative effects on Chinese forest chemical products export trade. Differences between the income per capital and APEC system have no effects on Chinese forest chemical products export trade. On that basis, the trade potential of these countries is measured, and some suggestions for promoting the export of Chinese forest chemical products are put forward.

关 键 词：林化产品 出口贸易 引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]