中外几次重要地震预测与预报结果之启示  

Enlightment of the success or failure prediction for some large earthquakes at home and abroad

作　　者：马钦忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,中国上海200062

出　　处：《地震学报》2014年第3期500-513,共14页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41090292);中国地震局星火项目(XH12016);上海市科委科研计划项目(12231202700)共同资助

摘　　要：简述了地震预测的方法与类别,回顾了20世纪70年代以来国内外几次重要地震预测预报实践特别是地震短临预测预报的情况,从中凸显了地震短临预报的困难以及对挽救生命的重要性和社会需求的紧迫性.通过对上述国内外一些大地震预报预测(海城地震、唐山地震、日本地震、美国帕克菲尔德试验场的地震预报实践和汶川地震等)的成功与失败的解读,试图得到一些有益的启示:地震预测与预报,尤其是地震短临预测与预报虽然困难,但并不是不可能的,事实说明它存在着很大的可能性.This paper briefly describes the method of earthquake prediction and categories.Since the 1970s are reviewed several important earthquake predictions,especially short-term earthquake prediction practices at home and abroad.This highlights the difficulty of short-term and impending earthquake prediction and the importance of saving lives as well as the urgency of the social demand.This paper attempts to seek out some profitable enlightment through the decipherment of success and failure for the prediction of some large earthquakes （include examples of Haicheng earthquake,Tangshan earthquake,Wenchuan earthquake in China,some Japan＇s earthquake predictions,and Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment in USA）.From the enlightment we could find that earthquake prediction,especially short-term earthquake prediction,is difficult but not impossible.The fact shows that it exists a lot of possibilities.

关 键 词：地震预测 地震前兆 震例研究 启示 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]