不确定条件下耦合S-P水质模拟的水资源管理模型建立研究  

Modeling study of water resources management model coupled with S-P water quality model under uncertainty conditions

作　　者：李淑玲 李贵阳 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水文局,辽宁沈阳110003 [2]辽宁省水文局沈阳分局,辽宁沈阳110003

出　　处：《东北水利水电》2014年第6期33-35,72,共3页Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China

摘　　要：本文通过引入区间不确定性参数,并结合S-P一维水质模型,构建了改进的不确定水质预测模型,并将其预测结果作为考虑不确定参数的水资源管理模型的边界条件,以此形成不确定条件下耦合S-P水质模拟的水资源管理模型。通过案例分析,具体描述该模型的应用条件和使用方法,采用交互式算法对建立的耦合ITSP-SP模型进行求解,得到不确定参数的稳定区间解,从而为相关决策者制定水资源管理方案提供理论依据,同时通过约束条件,还可以核算出水量分配变化条件下相应的水质波动情况。An improved uncertainty water quality prediction model was established by introducing the interval uncertainty factors and coupled with the one-dimensional S-P water quality model, its results were taken as the boundary conditions of the water resources management model with uncertainty factors to establish the water resources management model coupled with the S-P water quality model under uncertainty conditions. Through the case studies, the application condition and use method of the model is described specifically, the interactive algorithm is adopted to solve the coupling ITSP-SP model, and then the stable range solution of the uncertainty parameters is obtained, which provides the theory basis for making the water resources management scheme and calculates the corresponding fluctuations of water quality under water supply allocation change by using the constraint conditions.

关 键 词：水质模型 水资源管理 S-P模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]