基于集对分析的供水水库群联合调度规则  

Water-supply multi-reservoir operating policy based on SPA

作　　者：郭旭宁[1,2] 胡铁松[1] 张涛[1,3] 吕一兵[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]长江大学信息与数学学院,荆州434023

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第6期1510-1516,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171151;11201039);中国博士后科学基金(2014M550772);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201021;201301001)

摘　　要：集对分析可以较全面地描述水资源系统中的不确定性,据此提出了确定供水水库群联合调度规则的集对分析新方法.根据离散微分动态规划(DDDP)和拟定供水调度图确定的相同时段同一蓄水状态下的水库供水决策构成一组集对,通过遗传算法优化调度图中各调度线的位置,使两种供水决策联系度最大,从而得到最优调度图.根据该原理,以水库群虚拟聚合水库为研究对象,采用多维DDDP与遗传算法可以确定聚合水库最优调度图,并以此作为水库群的供水规则.在多维DDDP确定的供水决策样本系列中,选取与当前时段蓄水、来水情况最相似(联系度最大)的若干样本作为参照样本,将参照样本下水库放水量的加权平均值作为该水库当前时段的放水量.以观音阁、葠窝水库群为例,验证了采用集对分析方法确定供水水库群联合调度规则的有效性和合理性.Set pair analysis （SPA） can be used to describe the uncertainty in water resource system comprehensively, so it is adopted in this paper to study the water-supply nmlti-reservoir operating policy. Two kinds of water-supply decision derived by the discrete differential dynamic programming （DDDP） and the drafted operating chart consist of a set pair. Tile optimal operating chart can be obtained by optimizing the hedging rule curves to maximize the connection degree between the two kinds of water-supply decision. According to this principle, the optimal operating chart of the equivalent reservoir for the multi-reservoir system can be also achieved. The amount of water released from each reservoir at the decision period is calculated by weighted average of water release in the sample operation periods determined by DDDP, in which the reservoir storage and inflow are closest to the ones at the decision period. Finally, Guanyinge- Shenwo nmlti-reservoir system is employed as a case study to verify the efficacy and reasonability of SPA for determining the water-supply nmlti-reservoir operating policy.

关 键 词：集对分析 供水水库群 调度图 下泄流量函数 DDDP 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]