关键基础设施防护主从对策模型及其求解算法  

Leader-follower hierachical decision model for critical infrastructure protection and its solving algorithm

作　　者：朱悦妮[1] 郑征[1] 张逍怡[1] 蔡开元[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学自动化科学与电气工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第6期1557-1565,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60904066);航空科学基金(2008ZG51092);北京航空航天大学基本科研业务费(YWF-14-ZDHXY-05)

摘　　要：针对基础服务设施系统的优化防护策略制定问题,将系统抽象成由服务设施、需求点及连接弧构成的一般性网络.应用对策论中的主从对策理论思想,描述系统防护计划制定者与攻击者在决策时相互制约的关系,并考虑设施容量限制这一现实因素对问题的影响,提出带容限的"防护-中断-再分配"三层主从对策模型.通过设计"大需求量优先-就近服务"的启发式分配策略化简模型,使其转换为双层混合整数线性规划,进而采用一种二叉树搜索算法对模型进行求解.实验表明,该启发式策略在绝大多数情况下均能以很小误差逼近最优分配.由模型给出的优化防护策略可大幅减低系统遭受破坏后的运行成本,当防护资源投入达一定量时,能有效避免系统陷入非正常运行状态.通过对模型及模型解的分析,可有助于真实大型复杂基础设施服务系统关键部位的识别及防护策略制定.To meet the need of optimal fortification planning for critical infrastructure, a supply system was regarded as a network composed of service facilities, demand nodes and linking arcs. The authors utilized the theory of leader-follower hierarchical decision to describe the interrelationship between the defender and the attacker. When modeling the problem, the impact of capacity limitation of facilities was taken into consideration, and a ＂protection-interdiction-reassignment＂ tri-level hierarchical decision model was then proposed. Based on a ＂greater demands prior-closest assignment＂ heuristic strategy, the model was simplified and solved through a binary tree search procedure. Experiments show that the heuristic can always get good approximations of optimal ones. The solutions to this model can help effectively alleviate the reduction of system efficiency, even avoid deadly system impairment if the protection investment is sufficient.

关 键 词：关键设施 主从对策 容量限制 树搜索 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]