征收硫税对中国宏观经济与产业部门的影响  

Impacts of Sulfur Taxation on the Chinese Macroeconomy and Industrial Sectors

作　　者：马士国[1] 石磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2014年第3期51-60,共10页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国制造业出口贸易结构低碳化研究"(项目编号:71273092);教育部人文社会科学基金项目"全球气候变化背景下中国转变外贸增长方式研究"(项目编号:10YJCZH108);上海市浦江人才计划项目"污染减排技术研发的经济激励政策研究"(项目编号:13PJC023)的资助

摘　　要：本文通过建立一个可计算一般均衡模型,定量研究了征收硫税对中国宏观经济和产业部门的影响。研究发现:(1)征收硫税导致了部门的劳动、资本和能源投入结构发生变化,不同部门的要素之间替代情况不一,同时也导致了能源消费结构的变化;(2)随着硫税税率的逐步提高,减排对宏观经济造成的影响是递增的,且低硫煤由替代品转变为被替代品,其产出经历了一个先升后降的过程;(3)在生产环节征收硫税,除导致能源部门的产出价格明显高于在消费环节征收外,对实际经济的影响两者差别微小;(4)在硫税收入留存于政府、返还企业以及返还居民三种使用方式下,征收硫税对实际GDP均产生负面影响,但影响较小,其中第二种方式对实际GDP和进出口产生的负面影响最小,对居民可支配收入和福利的负面影响居中。最后基于上述发现提出了若干政策建议。This paper builds a computable general equilibrium model for evaluating the impacts of sulfur taxation on Chinese macroeconomy and industrial sectors. Some major findings are： （ 1 ） the imposition of sulfur taxation promotes agents to substitute no-sulfur and low-sulfur contained energy for high-sulfur contained energy, and causes industrial sectors＇ input structures of labor, capital and energy to vary differently; （2） with the ratio of sulfur taxation increasing, low-sulfur contained coal changes from the alternative to be alternated, and its output takes on an inverted U-shaped; （3） except that energy sectors＇ output prices with sulfur taxation imposed on production process are higher than that imposed on consumption process, the difference of impacts on the real economy between these two imposition process is tiny; （4） the three ways of tax revenue use, retained in government, returned to finns, and returned to residents, all produce the negatively small impact on the real GDP, moreover, among the three ways, the negative impacts of the second way on the real GDP, import, and export, are the smallest, and on the disposable income and welfare of the residents are middle. Finally, we put forward some policy suggestions according to the above-mentioned results.

关 键 词：硫税 宏观经济 产业部门 要素替代 能源消费结构 征收环节 收入使用方式 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]