电力消费与中国经济增长  

Electricity Consumption and China's Economic Growth

作　　者：刘生龙[1] 高宇宁[1] 胡鞍钢[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2014年第3期71-80,共10页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"人口老龄化经济增长效应理论与实证研究";国家重点基础研究发展计划(项目编号:2012CB955801)的资助

摘　　要：本文收集中国28个省、市、自治区1978～2011年面板数据，使用新近的基于误差修正的面板协整检验方法检验电力消费与中国经济发展之间的协整关系，同时对两者之间进行格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果表明电力消费与中国经济增长之间存在着协整关系，而且从长期来看，存在着电力消费→GDP单向的因果关系；从短期来看，存在着GDP→电力消费单向的因果关系。本文还将中国分成东、中、西三大区域经济地带，验证不同区域电力消费与经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系，结果表明从长期来看，东、中、西部地区均存在着电力消费→GDP单向的因果关系，而从短期来看，只有西部地区存在着GDP→电力消费单向的因果关系。Collecting the panel data of China＇s 28 provinces between 1978 and 2011, the paper applied the method of panel co-integration method based on the vector error correction as in Westerlund （2007） to test the co-integration relation and Granger causality between electricity consumption and China＇s economic growth. The result indicated that there is co-integra- tion relation between electricity consumption and China＇s economic growth and unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth in the long run. In the short run, there existed the causality from economic growth to electricity consumption. The paper also divided China into three regions of the East, the Middle and the West and tests the Granger causality through different regions. The results show that in the long run they all have unidirectional causality from economic growth to electricity consumption. However, only the West has the opposite causality in the short run.

关 键 词：电力消费 经济增长 面板协整 格兰杰因果检验 动态面板最小二乘法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]