调节收入分配:个税真的无效吗?  

Regulation of China's Income Distribution:Is Personal Income Tax Invalid?

作　　者：陈利锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中共广东省委党校经济学教研部,广东广州510053

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2014年第7期66-70,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CJL065);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(13YJC790229);广东省自然科学基金项目(S2012040007167)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于一个包含财富异质性家户的动态新凯恩斯主义模型,考察了个税及其累进性的变动对于中国收入差距的影响。与已有的采用单方程计量的研究类似,文章全样本仿真的结果表明,个税并未扭转我国收入差距不断扩大的趋势。由于单方程计量方法与全样本仿真无法考察政策机制的改变所引起的预期等因素的变化对于主要经济变量的影响,采用子样本反事实分析法考察了1997至2005年、2006至2010年以及2011年之后等三个不同子样本期个税累进性的提高对于中国收入差距的影响,研究发现尽管个税无法扭转收入差距扩大的趋势,但是个税累进性的提高缓和了中国收入差距扩大的程度。进而尝试提出了相应的改善收入分配的政策建议。This paper, based on a new and dynamic Keynesian model of wealth heterogeneous households, investigates the effect of personal income tax and its progressivity on China＇s income gap. Just like the research employing single equation method, the result of total sample simulation shows that personal income tax cannot control the amplification of China＇s income gap. Since the single equation method and total sample simulation cannot test whether the predicted factors caused by the change of the policy mechanism have impact on the main economic variables, the paper uses sub-sample counterfactual analysis to study if the increase of personal income tax progressivity in 3 periods of 1997-2005, 2006-2010 and after 2011 influences China＇s income gap, finds that though personal income tax cannot turn round the amplification of China＇s income gap, the increase of personal income tax progressivity softens the amplification of China＇s income gap, and finally puts forth some policy recommendations for improving the income distribution.

关 键 词：个人所得税 累进性 全样本仿真 子样本反事实分析 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]