热带太平洋要素场与ENSO的非线性相关特征分析  

Diagnostic analysis of nonlinear correlation characters between the variables in the tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO

作　　者：洪梅[1] 张韧[1] 余丹丹[2] 董兆俊[2] 李璨[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]中国人民解放军61741部队

出　　处：《热带海洋学报》2014年第2期28-36,共9页Journal of Tropical Oceanography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41375002;41005025/D0505;41306010);江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK2011123)

摘　　要：为进一步揭示热带太平洋海气系统要素场之间的非线性相关特征,基于Hadley提供的海温场资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)提供的海面风场和海面气压场资料,采用经验正交(EOF)分解和非线性典型相关分析法(NLCCA),分析了海温、海面风场和海面气压场三要素场之间的非线性相关性。结果表明,西太平洋暖池的异常暖状态和热带太平洋的西风异常与ENSO的非线性之间存在着密切关联。进一步引入奇异值分解方法(SVD),将其与NLCCA方法相结合,分析了热带太平洋海温场与海面风场、海面气压场耦合变化的关键影响区及其异性相关的分布特征。分析表明,热带太平洋西风异常和西太副高与ENSO循环之间存在较好的相关性。具体表现在:海温在中东太平洋地区出现异常增暖时,有助于加强东南亚地区的对流发展,促使东南亚地区季风的提前爆发;而东北太平洋副热带高压强度变化对北太平洋中部Nam ias海区海温距平的东西向振荡具有重要作用。研究为ENSO循环的非线性特性提供了有力的证明,也为ENSO的预测研究奠定了相关基础。The goal of this study is to further explore the nonlinear correlation characteristics between variables in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. The data used include the sea surface temperature （SST） data provided by the Hadley Center, and the sea surface wind field and sea level pressure data provided by the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）. The empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis and the nonlinear canonical correlative analysis （NLCCA） are used to analyze nonlinear correlations among SST, sea surface wind and sea level pressure. The results show that the Pacific warm pool in the abnormal warming state and the westerly wind anomalies in the tropical western Pacific are two foreboding conditions of ENSO events. Using the singular value decomposition （SVD） method, combined with the NLCCA method, the area affected by coupling and the distribution characteristics of the anisotropic relationship of SST, sea surface wind and sea level pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean are also analyzed. The results show good correlations exist among the tropical Pacific westerly anomaly, the western Pacific subtropical high and ENSO cycle.

关 键 词：热带太平洋 海气系统 非线性典型相关 ENSO 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]