基于CA-Markov模型的秦淮河流域土地覆盖格局模拟预测  

Simulation and forecast of land cover pattern in Qinhuai River Basin based on the CA-Markov model

作　　者：陈爱玲[1,2] 都金康[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理信息科学系,南京210046 [2]南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,南京210046

出　　处：《国土资源遥感》2014年第2期184-189,共6页Remote Sensing for Land & Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:40730635)

摘　　要：以秦淮河流域为研究区,以2006和2009年ETM+图像土地覆盖分类结果为输入数据,采用CA-Markov模型,模拟预测研究区未来的土地覆盖格局。在模型建立过程中,通过Markov模型求出转移概率矩阵和转移面积矩阵,确定CA模型转换规则,限制CA模型迭代次数。利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测研究区2012和2018年土地覆盖格局,并采用2012年实际土地覆盖分类结果验证预测精度,得到2012年各土地覆盖类型栅格数预测误差均小于等于6.5%,空间位置预测精度达到76.5%。预测结果表明,2018年研究区水田比例将降为33.3%,不透水面比例将达31.1%,其中多数水田转变成为不透水面,南京城区、禄口镇、句容市、溧水县等城镇地区的不透水面明显扩张。该方法可以对秦淮河流域的土地覆盖动态监测以及可持续发展提供依据。Based on the classified result of Landsat ETM＋ remote sensing images of 2006 and 2009 , the paper simulated and forecasted land cover types of Qinhuai River Basin in the future by using the CA-Markov model. In＆amp;nbsp;the model-building process, the transition probability matrix and the transition area matrix were obtained through the Markov model, which determined the conversion rules and iterative times of the CA model. The land cover pattern of the study area in 2012 and 2018 was simulated and forecasted with the CA-Markov model. Then the forecast result was compared with the actual classified data of 2012 to verify the forecast accuracy. The raster number forecast error of each land cover type is not higher than 6. 5%, and the spatial location accuracy is 76. 5%. The forecast results show that the paddy field decreased to 33 . 3 % and the impervious surface reached 31 . 1 % of Qinhuai River Basin in 2018. Most of the paddy field converted into impervious surface. The impervious surface of urban areas expands obviously in such urban areas as Nanjing, Lukou, Jurong and Lishui. The methods can provide a basis for dynamic monitoring as well as sustainable development of Qinhuai River Basin.

关 键 词：土地覆盖 遥感 CA-Markov模型 模拟预测 秦淮河流域 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]